Advancing sustainable global trade
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In the news
Media come to us for fresh thinking and deep analysis into the issues impacting global trade outcomes. Read our recent experts’ commentaries. Drawn from a wide range of disciplines and sectors, our experts offer valuable views and opinions on achieving sustainable global trade.
Why US crackdown on transshipment could have consequences for India
Decoupling from China has been a slow and painful process even for the US. For India — which aims to expand its manufacturing base to create jobs for its large population — the challenge is even greater. The lower cost of Chinese goods has disrupted several Indian industries. In a report published by the Hinrich Foundation, Chen Gang of the National University of Singapore noted that China’s “state capitalism has an innate tendency to focus on the ‘supply side’ instead of the ‘demand side,” and this approach has led to “enormous industrial capacity subsidized by the state but detached from real market demand.”
Trump’s Russia Tariff Threat Risks Harming Ties With Modi, Xi
US President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Russia would risk complicating relations with two nations crucial to his economic and strategic goals: China and India. Trade analysts, including the Hinrich Foundation's Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms, said the proposed levies would be difficult to police and, if implemented, could well backfire on the US. “It remains unclear how exactly you would do this, and how China or anyone would certify that they’re meeting the US requirement,” Elms noted. “It’s going to add more fuel to the fire of why these countries are skeptical of receiving a deal from Trump.”
Trump’s tariffs aren’t wrecking the economy, supporters say. But here’s what they’re missing.
President Donald Trump and his supporters are pointing to the stock market’s record highs and other encouraging economic indicators to argue that concerns about his tariffs are overblown. Skeptics, however, say it’s too soon to declare that all’s well, especially given that higher levels of import taxes could be coming. “If the tariffs kick in at a higher rate as expected, as early as 15 days from now, there will be even more damage to the US economy, and it is not difficult to find a lot of U.S. businesses, especially US small businesses, who are increasingly struggling under tariff costs,” Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, said.
‘Some cannot source outside China’: S’pore firms’ challenges and support needed amid US tariffs
The lack of detail on Trump's tariffs has created something of a Rubik’s cube for firms trying to navigate these testing new waters. “Some [companies] have accelerated production to ship products to the US while tariffs are lower. Others have stopped or postponed production until they have greater clarity. But uncertainty has a cost as well, including a lack of investment for new capacity," said Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation. “Any tariff is a challenge for firms, but one that hits all imports equally or nearly equally is not as damaging as one that hits your producers the hardest with the highest rates.”
