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See Hinrich Foundation research and researchers featured in the press.
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There is currency stress on the horizon
Uncertainty around how much the Chinese government desires to undermine the dominance of the dollar is stoking fears among some analysts. "At the end of March this year the renminbi accounted for 53 per cent of cross-border payments and receipts in the world’s second-largest economy...The dollar now stands at 43 per cent, down from 83 per cent in 2010," according to an infographic the Hinrich Foundation co-produced with Visual Capitalist.
Outside voices: Could an e-commerce deal spur a WTO ‘renaissance?’
Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell espies hopeful signs at the WTO – signs that, if translated into results, “may well save the institution from its drift into irrelevance.” Rockwell points to a “subset of members...racing to deliver a deal to permanently ban e-commerce duties” as an institution-shaking possibility with organizational-saving potential. Inside U.S. Trade republished Rockwell's analysis for the Hinrich Foundation.
China’s exports to Mexico are getting heavier tariffs – is it a sign of more to come?
New tariffs from Mexico could be an ill omen for Chinese exporters as global supply chains shift, with the Latin American country looking to balance its economic interests against pressures from the US over its relationship with the Asian manufacturing powerhouse. Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms spoke to SCMP.
The parcel war is about to begin
The US's de minimis tariff threshold is coming under political attack from several directions as politicians claim that it facilitates tax dodging and the import of illegal drugs. But on the issue of fentanyl specifically, removing or reducing the de minimis threshold wouldn’t help. "The US border force simply doesn’t have the capacity to properly check all the parcels entering the country," says Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms.
TikTok could be banned in the US. What would that mean for the rest of the world?
TikTok's fate in the US won't come down to who's elected the next president. “The US courts will eventually decide whether to uphold or overrule a ban on TikTok, based on the First Amendment to the US Constitution, and a citizen's right to free speech,” Research Fellow Alex Capri said, adding that the case could go all the way to the Supreme Court.
Biden’s push for more Chinese steel tariffs is a political decision, not an economic one: Analyst
"It's not about the overcapacity of steel being dumped in the United States...it's really about to maintain the support for Joe Biden in a close election with key constituencies in steel-making states. So this issue is much more about politics than about economics," said Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms in a discussion with CNBC on Biden’s push to triple tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.
Dysfunction and division darken the WTO’s 30-year dream of free trade
Any enthusiasm for groundbreaking trade liberalisation deals disappeared decades ago and has been replaced by covert protectionism. Relations between the US and China are at a low ebb, and likely to get worse. “No matter who wins the [2024] presidential election, the future of US-China trade relations don’t look that bright. All of Trump’s tariffs are still in place. Biden hasn’t removed a single one.”
US lawmakers want a TikTok sale or ban, but China’s ByteDance won’t give up without a fight
From lobbying politicians to rallying users, ByteDance and TikTok have put up stiff resistance to divestment pressure in the US. But in addition to dealing with mounting political hostility in Washington, ByteDance also has to assuage concerns in Beijing. Research Fellow Alex Capri breaks down why in an interview with SCMP.
If the US bans TikTok, China will be getting a taste of its own medicine
If TikTok is eventually banned, more Chinese-owned apps in the US may be next in line, according to Research Fellow Alex Capri. This latest episode with TikTok also "underscores the need for a much more robust regulatory framework in the US to address existential issues wrought by big-tech, in general,” he said.
US lawmakers see TikTok as China’s tool, even as it distances itself from Beijing
Companies like TikTok with Chinese roots are “really stuck in two polar extremes” between the heavy-handed communist party and the deeply suspicious West, said Research Fellow Alex Capri. “Any Chinese tech company has to operate under a cloud of suspicion, and that’s because there’s a total breakdown of trust".
Trump will probably kill IPEF on Day 1 of his presidency
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at Hinrich Foundation, says as former U.S. President Donald Trump already killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the first day of his presidency, “I suspect he will do something similar for IPEF” if he becomes president again.
IPEF trade void raises stakes for Raimondo
US Commerce chief Gina Raimondo is in the Philippines this week as the Biden administration faces scrutiny over slow progress on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. “In this politically charged environment, virtually no one in the world expects much progress on trade via IPEF in 2024,” Hinrich Foundation's Kurt Tong and Chuin Wei Yap wrote in The Hill.
