The WTO struck several deals. Skepticism remains.

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Deal-making at the WTO has not convinced critics | Decoupling is easier said than done | Sustainable trade? | Visualizing trade | More related research from Hinrich Foundation

Deal-making at the WTO has not convinced critics

The long awaited WTO Ministerial Conference, or MC12, issued a package of agreements, including on fisheries subsidies, food insecurity, an intellectual property right waiver for Covid vaccines, WTO reform, and an extension of the e-commerce customs moratorium. But do the agreements have long-term significance? The MC12 package was a face-saving exercise, argues Alan Beattie of the Financial Times. Coverage was extensive; the World Economic Forum noted the politics of the negotiations, Reuters reported on extension of the e-commerce moratorium, Inu Manak explains the fisheries subsidies deal to the China Trade Monitor, while Bryan Mercurio discusses the TRIPS waiver agreement in Think Global Health. The TRIPS waiver even offers a glimmer of hope for US-China trade relations, argues Wendy Cutler. Lastly, WTO Deputy Director General Anabel Gonzalez argues that there was more than meets the eye in the meetings’ outcomes. 

Mentioned publications

1. WTO members secure unprecedented package of trade outcomes at MC12 – World Trade Organization, 23 June 2022
   WTO members come to agreements on fisheries subsidies, a patent waiver for Covid vaccines, food insecurity, and WTO reforms, among others.
2. The WTO’s marathon exercise in staying alive – Op-ed: Alan Beattie, Financial Times, 17 June 2022
   MC12’s outcomes represent a symbolic victory for the WTO.
3. Understanding the WTO Ministerial Meeting: What just happened and what’s next? – Sean Doherty and Aditi Sara Verghese, World Economic Forum, 20 June 2022
   The WEF provides a clear and concise summary of the ministerial meeting’s outcomes.
4. WTO provisionally agrees to extend e-commerce tariff moratorium – sources – Reuters, 17 June 2022 
   WTO members agree to extend the moratorium on customs duties on e-commerce until at least the next ministerial meeting.
5. Q & A with Inu Manak on WTO Fisheries Subsidies Deal – Simon Lester, China Trade Monitor, 21 June 2022
   An analysis and insights on what was accomplished in the fisheries subsidies agreement, and where it will go from here.
6. Sharpening the Tools in the Pandemic-Ending Toolbox – Bryan Mercurio, Think Global Health, 23 June 2022 
   WTO members agree on an IP waiver for Covid vaccines. What does the agreement cover and how will it work? 
7. A glimmer of hope for improved US-China trade relations –Wendy Cutler, The Hill, 22 June 2022
   A key compromise negotiated between the US and China enabled an agreement on the WTO TRIPS waiver. 
8. MC12: more than meets the eye – DDG Anabel Gonzalez, World Trade Organization, 20 June 2022
   Although expectations were low for the outcomes of this ministerial meeting, the stakes could not be higher for the WTO and for the world.

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Decoupling is easier said than done

Policymakers in the US and China are passing laws to further restrict trade. But US industry is not leaving China just yet – due to complex supply chains and their own preference to stay in the China market. There is no divorce yet, argues Michael Hirsch In Foreign Policy. The Wall Street Journal reviews Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg’s calls for renewed dialogue with China. The United States' Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act came into effect last week. That poses complications for supply chains for electric vehicle batteries, reports the New York Times.  

In Russia, companies that want to leave are facing challenges in doing so. The Wall Street Journal details the struggles of cigarette manufacturer Philip Morris to dismantle operations to exit the market.  

The US economy is now seeing signs that supply chain challenges are shifting again. Per Craig Fuller for FreightWaves, purchasers are cancelling or delaying orders, resulting in less demand for containers and trucking – the collision of inflation and a supply chain “bullwhip effect”. 

Mentioned publications

1. The U.S. and China Haven’t Divorced Just Yet – Michael Hirsh, Foreign Policy, 22 June 2022 
   Despite tariffs and other trade restrictions, decoupling isn’t happening, and is unlikely to happen in a significant way. 
2. One American CEO Argues for Mending Fences With China – Lingling Wei and Charles Hutzler, The Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2022
   While geopolitical tensions weigh against speaking out in favor of US-China engagement, some CEOs continue to press for better relations.
   • Business and Trade Are in Our National Interest – Evan Greenberg Speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 14 June 2022
3. Red Flags for Forced Labor Found in China’s Car Battery Supply Chain – Ana Swanson and Chris Buckley, The New York Times, 20 June 2022
   As the US government begins to implement the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, how will US-China trade be affected?
   • Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act U.S. Customs and Border Protection Operational Guidance for Importers – US Customs and Border Protection, 13 June 2022
4. Companies Find Leaving Russia Difficult, Though Many Are Trying – Jennifer Maloney and Thomas Gryta, The Wall Street Journal, 21 June 2022
   Even when companies want to leave their investments in a country with a relatively small economic footprint, decoupling is hard to do.
5. A potential economic recession and the supply chain bullwhip are colliding – Craig Fuller, FreightWaves, 21 June 2022
   Key indicators show that supply chains are experiencing the bullwhip effect.

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Sustainable trade?

The ongoing push to make greater use of biofuels may come into conflict with ensuring enough crops for global food security. The Financial Times describes the coming policy conflict. 

Mentioned publications

1. Food vs fuel: Ukraine war sharpens debate on use of crops for energy – Emiko Terazono and Camilla Hodgson, Financial Times, 12 June 2022
   Will the continued use of crops for biofuel exacerbate food insecurity?

Visualizing trade

Lastly, the WTO provides us with a new tool for visualizing trade flows between economies, with its Trade Connectivity Heatmap. 

Mentioned publications

1. Trade Connectivity Heatmap – World Trade Organization, 23 June 2022
   A new WTO tool allows users to visualize trade relationships between countries in terms of intensity of goods traded. 

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More related research from the Hinrich Foundation:

• WTO agenda reveals fault lines too wide to bridge 
• A deal on fish will break the WTO’s negotiating deadlock 
• Supply chains are trying to diversify. Will ASEAN step in? 
• The geopolitics of electric vehicles: techno-nationalism reshapes the automotive industry 

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