Article originally published by Lowy Interpreter.

In February, the United Kingdom became the first nation to formally apply to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the 11 country free trade deal spanning Asia and the Pacific. But the UK isn’t the only horse in the race. So far, eight different countries have telegraphed some kind of interest in joining the CPTPP. The field includes a mix of front runners (the United States, South Korea), a few stayers (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines) and two dark horses that might unsettle the field (China, Taiwan). To help make sense of the field and odds, here is your form guide to CPTPP expansion in 2021.

The Favourite: Republic of Korea

In January 2021, the Moon Administration announced it would seek to join the CPTPP(1). South Korea was expected to be the first accession candidate to what was originally known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and still sees the CPTPP membership as the key to diversifying exports and spurring economic growth in the wake of Covid-19. South Korea is advantaged by having domestic regulations that are already close to CPTPP standards, and only needs to focus on reforms in a few areas(2).

The key obstacle for South Korea will be difficulties in its bilateral relationship with Japan, including recently renewed disputes over several “historical issues”, as well as an unfortunate trade war. Japan’s objections to recent proposals to invite South Korea as an observer to the G7 indicate the bilateral relationship will need to be mended before a CPTPP accession is on the cards.

The “Second Up”: United States

US accession would be a game changer for the CPTPP. Not only would it almost triple the economic size of the bloc, but it would also serve as an indicator of renewed US commitment to allies and institutions in the Indo-Pacific. The loss of the US to the negotiations during the Trump administration was a near-fatal blow for the TPP, and restoring the US would return it to its original status as the world’s largest regional trade bloc.