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Sustainable trade

The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on developing Asia


Published 01 March 2020 | 1 minute read

This ADB brief analyses the potential economic impact of the new coronavirus outbreak on developing Asian economies across various scenarios.

Given the highly unpredictable nature of the outbreak, the range of scenarios explored in this brief suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion or 0.1% to 0.4% of global GDP, with a moderate case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2% of global GDP. Two-thirds of the impact falls on the PRC, where the outbreak has been concentrated so far. The estimated impact on individual developing Asian economies—and on sectors within these economies—is also provided.


Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members – 49 from the region.

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