Tariff turmoil

The New York Times reports that Trump whipsaws on tariffs, as detailed in Federal Register notices applying to Canada and Mexico. In the Wall Street Journal, Chao Deng reports that a big chunk of trade remains exposed to tariffs. Sam Lowe describes NAFTA 3.0 and the importance of United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin in his Most Favoured Nation blog. The Financial Times uses the Chevy Silverado pick-up truck to illustrate the impact of 25% tariffs. The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump’s trade agencies are struggling to keep up with an expanding work load. Bloomberg provides an explainer on what Trump is trying to achieve with tariffs.

Mentioned publications

Trump Whipsaws on Tariffs, Giving Mexico and Canada Reprieve – Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, The New York Times, March 6, 2025
President Trump suspended many of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico just two days after imposing them, exempting USMCA-covered goods and creating confusion among businesses and investors. The decision came after backlash from automakers and farmers, while Canada and Mexico prepared retaliatory measures. Despite this suspension, Trump retained tariffs on Chinese imports and signaled more trade restrictions coming in April.
Notice of Implementation of Additional Duties on Products of Mexico Pursuant to the President's Executive Order 14194, Imposing Duties To Address the Situation at Our Southern Border – Notice, Federal Register, March 6, 2025
The Federal Register confirmed a 25% tariff on Mexican goods, effective March 4, under Executive Order 14194. These duties apply even to USMCA-eligible products, with limited exclusions.
Notice of Implementation of Additional Duties on Products of Canada Pursuant to the President's Executive Order 14193, Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border – Notice, Federal Register, March 6, 2025
The Federal Register confirmed additional tariffs on imported products of Canada, effective March 4, under Executive Order 14193. These duties aim to address the illicit drugs flow across the northern border.
Big Chunk of North American Trade Remains Exposed to Tariffs – Chao Deng, The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2025
President Trump suspended the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods for one month, but only for goods qualifying under the complex USMCA rules. Many businesses may now be forced to prove compliance to avoid tariffs. A lower 10% tariff applies to Canadian energy products and potash, adding to confusion and potential legal challenges for businesses and US Customs officials.
NAFTA 3.0 – Sam Lowe, Most Favoured Nation, March 6, 2025
Lowe illustrates why Trump’s temporary exemption from 25% tariffs turns on USMCA rules of origin. Despite Trump’s one-month tariff reprieve for USMCA-compliant automakers, stricter trade rules are likely ahead. To push more production into the US, his administration may raise default tariffs and tighten USMCA rules, making compliance the cheaper option. Meanwhile, upcoming global steel and aluminum tariffs could potentially impact imported derivative products, including hunting and fishing gear.
HF sponsored access How Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten an iconic US pick-up truck – Financial Times, March 3, 2025
The Financial Times uses the Chevrolet Silverado to explain how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada threaten the auto industry’s cross-border supply chains. Automakers like GM, Ford, and Stellantis warn that higher costs and supply chain disruptions could wipe out billions in profits, while shifting production to the US would be costly and slow. Tariffs could also hurt demand and increase migration from impacted regions.
Trump’s Tariff Onslaught Is Coming Faster Than His Team Can Carry It Out – Gavin Bade, The Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2025
Trump is pushing aggressive new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and key industries, but implementation is slowed by bureaucratic bottlenecks. The administration has temporarily reinstated the de minimis loophole after customs faced a massive backlog. While sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos move forward, broader reciprocal trade measures may take months. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are ramping up border security efforts, hoping to delay or avoid the tariffs altogether.
What Trump Aims to Achieve with His Tariffs – Daniel Flatley and Brendan Murray, Bloomberg, March 4, 2025
Trump’s aggressive tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico aim to boost US manufacturing, raise revenue, and serve as diplomatic leverage, but their inconsistent rollout is causing confusion and uncertainty. While China and Canada retaliate with counter-tariffs, Mexico is negotiating to delay them, and new sector-specific duties on steel, autos, and semiconductors are set for April. These tariffs could raise consumer costs, slow economic growth, and escalate trade tensions.