Economic lessons

The Council on Foreign Relations casts Smoot-Hawley as a cautionary example of politics trumping economic evidence, triggering retaliation, and deepening the Great Depression. The Cato Institute argues that US protectionism still serves the firms that lobby for it, leaving consumers to bear diffuse and often hidden costs. The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that the US retreat from the rules-based trading system risks replacing rules with power and uncertainty. Foreign Policy contends that international law’s erosion has weakened a shared language that once constrained state behavior, making global order more brutal and unpredictable. The Financial Times cautions that Western governments must avoid letting industrial policy expand too far, even as they counter cheap Chinese imports and build resilience in strategic industries.

Mentioned publications

Herbert Hoover signs the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act – James M. Lindsay, Council on Foreign Relations, June 17, 2026
A historical review of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act demonstrates how political considerations trumped economic evidence, triggering retaliation, deepening the Great Depression, and ultimately vindicating economists’ warnings against protectionism.
Adam Smith warned of (almost) everything wrong with US trade politics today – Scott Lincicome, Cato Institute, June 11, 2026
Adam Smith’s insights into trade politics remain evident in US protectionism today: far from serving the public interest, tariffs and other import barriers serve the firms that lobby for them, persist because their benefits are concentrated and costs diffuse, and demand greater transparency, scrutiny, and institutional checks.
International trade policy on America's 250th birthday – Alan Wm. Wolff, Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 17, 2026
Wolff writes that the United States helped create a rules-based world trading system that has supported global prosperity, peace, and US security for eight decades, but today’s retreat from its principles risks replacing reciprocity, non-discrimination, and binding commitments with power and unending uncertainty.
The end of morality – we may come to miss the hypocrisy. – Rosa Brooks, Foreign Policy, June 15, 2026
Brooks argues that international law has been hollowed out by many actors, eroding the shared language that once helped constrain state behavior and leaving a more brutal and unpredictable global order in its place.
HF sponsored access The risks of borrowing from China’s economic playbook – Editorial Board, Financial Times Op-ed, June 18, 2026
Western governments increasingly accept a larger role for the state in countering cheap Chinese imports and building resilience in strategic industries, but they must define the limits of industrial policy, remain open where possible, and restore the competitive strengths that made their economies prosperous in the first place.