How to make a deal

The Wall Street Journal reports on Trump Administration efforts to streamline tariff talks, while Wendy Cutler in Foreign Policy advises on how to strike trade deals in record time. Reuters reports that China is 'evaluating' an offer from the US to hold talks over Trump’s tariffs. Bloomberg writes that Japan is resisting US efforts to form a bloc against China. Thitinan Pongsudhirak opines in the Bangkok Post that Trump tariffs are sowing divisions in ASEAN. Zoe Zongyuan Liu writing in Foreign Affairs tells us how China armed itself for the trade war, while Martin Wolf in the Financial Times tells us why the US will lose the trade war to China.

Mentioned publications

Trump Administration Lays Out Roadmap to Streamline Tariff Talks – Gavin Bade, The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025
The Trump Administration plans to negotiate with dozens of countries simultaneously before the 90-day deadline expires. Talks will proceed in three waves of six countries each, repeating in cycles up to July 8 deadline, after which reciprocal tariffs may take effect on non-compliant nations.
How to Strike Trade Deals in Record Time – Wendy Cutler, Foreign Policy, April 15, 2025
As many US trading partners embark on negotiations with the White House, Cutler gives a range of options and criteria they may be considering, such as what they can offer and when to negotiate. At the same time, the White House must also consider its own approach and the leverage it holds in order to secure the best possible deals.
China 'evaluating' US offer to negotiate tariffs; Beijing's door is 'open' – Reuters, May 2, 2025
Reuters reports on the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s statement that the US has approached China to seek talks on trump’s tariffs, with Beijing saying that the door is open for discussions and quietly creating a list of products it is exempting from retaliatory tariffs.
Japan to Resist Trump Efforts to Form Trade Bloc Against China – Bloomberg, April 24, 2025
Japan is considering its negotiating positions with the US while also protecting its highly-important trade relations with China, rejecting efforts to form a bulwark with the US against China while recognizing the importance of the strategic relationship with the US. Japan faces a growing strategic dilemma amid mounting pressure from both sides over trade alignment.
Trump tariffs sow divisions in Asean – Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Bangkok Post Op-Ed, May 2, 2025
Trump’s tariffs may pose a challenge to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations regional unity like never before, given their differentiated, discriminatory, and trade-diversionary impact. Countries like Vietnam, hit with high tariffs despite offering concessions, are now more cautious, while larger economies like Malaysia and Singapore may weather the storm better due to lower tariffs and economic resilience. Meanwhile, China should avoid dumping exports in Southeast Asian markets as each economy navigates its way through the new reality of Trump’s trade landscape.
How China Armed Itself for the Trade War – Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Foreign Affairs, April 29, 2025
The best way to understand the stand off between US and China, Liu explains, is to examine faulty assumptions and misjudgments that led the two countries to this point. She outlines a more effective strategy for rebalancing the trade relationship in a way that would contribute to the economic growth in both countries while acknowledging competition between the two in industries of the future.
HF sponsored access Why the US will lose against China – Martin Wolf, Financial Times Op-ed, April 30, 2025
Trade wars are lose-lose, and in this case, the US, which wants to win at China’s expense, is the most likely loser, both misjudging and squandering its own leverage, while misreading China’s. US’s turn toward isolation, transactionalism, and institutional erosion under Trump threatens its ability to compete or cooperate effectively on the world stage.
The art of trade deal – Henry Gao, Hinrich Foundation, April 29, 2025
By announcing, and then temporarily pausing, universal tariffs on all countries on Liberation Day, Trump effectively reset the global trade agenda, initiating the largest round of trade negotiations since the launch of the WTO’s failed Doha Round in 2001. The key objective was the creation of leverage to compel every country to negotiate new bilateral deals with the US that address three crucial areas: tariffs-related issues, non-tariff barriers, and China’s economic strategies.