**Introduction** Middle powers can reduce their vulnerability to economic coercion by lowering dependence on any single major economy, strengthening domestic resilience in key sectors, coordinating with other countries, and supporting stable trade rules. As larger powers increasingly use trade, technology access, and investment restrictions for strategic purposes, middle powers face greater exposure because they have less economic leverage and fewer retaliatory options. Reducing vulnerability therefore depends on building flexibility and avoiding excessive reliance on one partner. **Contextual background** Economic coercion refers to the use of economic pressure — such as tariffs, import restrictions, export controls, or investment measures — to influence another country’s political decisions. These practices have become more common as trade and national security have become more closely linked, especially in areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, energy, and digital infrastructure[1][2]. Middle powers are particularly vulnerable when trade, investment, or supply chains are heavily concentrated in a single partner. This creates opportunities for larger economies to use market access or supply disruptions as leverage during political disputes. **How middle powers can reduce vulnerability** **1.** **Diversifying trade and supply chains** Middle powers can reduce vulnerability by expanding trade and investment ties across a wider range of countries. Heavy dependence on a single export market or supplier creates opportunities for external pressure through trade restrictions or supply disruptions. Diversification reduces the ability of any one country to use economic ties as leverage. This has become especially important in sectors tied to critical minerals, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing, where supply chains are often concentrated in a small number of countries. Expanding regional trade agreements and encouraging businesses to source from multiple markets can improve resilience during periods of geopolitical tension[3][4]. **2.** **Strengthening domestic resilience in strategic sectors** Middle powers can also reduce vulnerability by strengthening domestic capacity in sectors that are important for economic security. Governments increasingly support strategic sectors such as semiconductors, critical minerals, energy infrastructure, and telecommunications to strengthen supply chain resilience and reduce dependence on external suppliers during geopolitical or economic disruptions[5][6]. Many governments are using industrial policy, investment screening, infrastructure support, and strategic reserves to reduce exposure in these sectors. The objective is not full self-sufficiency but ensuring that critical parts of the economy can continue functioning during external pressure or supply interruptions. **3.** **Coordinating with other middle powers** Cooperation with other middle powers can increase collective bargaining power and reduce the effectiveness of economic pressure. Countries facing similar vulnerabilities increasingly coordinate through regional trade agreements, supply chain partnerships, and technology cooperation. Collective action also raises the political and economic costs of coercive measures. This is particularly visible in the Indo-Pacific, where middle powers increasingly pursue partnerships that help maintain economic openness while avoiding excessive dependence on a single major power[7]. **4.** **Supporting rules-based trade institutions** Middle powers benefit from predictable trade rules because they cannot rely on economic size alone to defend their interests. Strengthening the World Trade Organization and supporting clearer rules on subsidies, export restrictions, and dispute settlement can help limit arbitrary economic measures. Although the multilateral trading system faces growing strain, stable trade institutions still provide smaller economies with legal and diplomatic tools that reduce reliance on power-based bargaining[8]. **Conclusion** Middle powers can reduce vulnerability to economic coercion by diversifying economic relationships, strengthening resilience in key sectors, cooperating with other countries, and supporting rules-based trade governance. These strategies help reduce dependence on any single partner and improve the ability to manage geopolitical and economic pressure while remaining integrated in the global economy.
