**Introduction** Over the next decade, as major-power rivalry increasingly operates through economic and technology instruments, ASEAN’s strategic choices are likely to shift toward[1][2][3]: 1. Deeper rules-based integration in the digital economy; 2. Stronger ASEAN-wide investment and supply-chain competitiveness as production networks reconfigure; and 3. More deliberate ASEAN centrality and coalition-building **Strategic drivers and policy implications** **1.** **Digital economy governance and regional competitiveness** ASEAN’s digital integration agenda places increasing weight on practical rule alignment in areas such as paperless trade, digital payments, data governance, and cybersecurity[4]. As the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) shifts from negotiation to implementation, the focus turns to the degree of regulatory coherence that can be achieved across member states while maintaining national policy space[4][5]. Closer alignment in technical standards, mutual recognition, and regulatory procedures would lower compliance costs for firms providing cross-border digital services and for manufacturers that depend on cross-border data flows and digital systems to manage production, logistics, and payments. Fragmented regulatory approaches, by contrast, would increase compliance burdens and limit the benefits of operating across a region-wide market[4][5]. **2.** **Supply-chain reconfiguration and ASEAN as an integrated production base** ASEAN’s current strategic framework recognizes supply-chain reconfiguration and digital transformation as long-term trends that will shape regional economic policy through the 2030s[3]. At the same time, investment decisions remain sensitive to tariff risks and geopolitical tensions, increasing the importance of policy predictability, efficient customs procedures, and transparent regulatory processes[6][7]. Deeper coordination in investment facilitation, transport and logistics connectivity, and regulatory practices would strengthen ASEAN’s position as a single production base rather than a set of separate markets. Improvements in physical infrastructure, customs performance, and cross-border digital systems would enable firms to move goods, services, and data more efficiently across the region, support upgrading in supply chain-intensive industries, and reinforce ASEAN’s role in global production networks[3][6][7]. **3.** **Geopolitical competition and sensitive sectors** ASEAN’s 2045 vision emphasizes unity, centrality, and institutional adaptability in a more contested external environment[1][2]. An inclusive regional architecture is expected to remain the foundation of ASEAN’s external engagement. At the same time, geopolitical competition is increasingly conducted through technology export controls, infrastructure-related standards, and trade and investment measures justified on security grounds, leaving less room for flexibility in certain strategically sensitive sectors[1][2][5]. Maintaining ASEAN centrality will require not only continued inclusive convening, but also closer coordination in areas where external dependencies and security risks are concentrated. This may include shared baseline approaches to cybersecurity, resilience-oriented connectivity planning, and more consistent screening frameworks for sensitive assets, while broader trade and diplomatic engagement remains open[1][2][3][5]. **Conclusion** Technological change will increase the importance of regulatory interoperability in the digital economy. Economic shifts — especially supply-chain reconfiguration and more policy-driven investment decisions — strengthen the case for deeper regional facilitation and integration. Geopolitical rivalry is likely to sustain ASEAN’s emphasis on centrality and inclusive regional architecture, while requiring closer coordination in selected sensitive sectors. Taken together, these developments point toward a more integrated and more strategically coordinated ASEAN approach over the next decade.
