**Introduction** China’s renewed shift toward export-led growth is reshaping its trade relationships by generating exceptionally large external surpluses and intensifying competitive pressures abroad. With developed economies, the adjustment is most visible through tighter market access and more frequent trade defenses. With developing economies, lower-cost imports support near-term growth but place added pressure on domestic manufacturing and upgrading. These dynamics are also spilling over into third markets, increasing fragmentation across global trade relationships. **China’s export surge and trade surplus** China’s recent growth pattern reflects weak domestic demand alongside continued expansion in manufacturing output. Slower growth in consumption and construction has held back imports, while production in machinery, transport equipment, electrical goods, and clean-energy products has continued to rise. In 2025, China’s goods trade surplus exceeded US$1 trillion, driven by merchandise exports of roughly US$3.6 trillion and comparatively subdued import growth[1][2]. Net goods exports accounted for most of the current-account surplus, which remained close to 2% of gross domestic product[3]. **Effects on trade relationships** **1.** **Rising trade friction with developed economies** In developed economies, China’s export surge increases import competition in economically and politically sensitive sectors. Higher shipments of electric vehicles, batteries, steel, chemicals, and clean-energy equipment place sustained pressure on domestic producers. Common responses include greater use of anti-dumping and countervailing duties, safeguard measures, and tighter conditions on subsidies and public procurement. These actions increase trade uncertainty and reinforce a shift toward more managed and conditional market access, particularly in sectors linked to industrial policy and energy-transition objectives[3][4]. **2.** **Uneven trade effects in developing economies** In many developing economies, increased imports from China reduce the cost of machinery, intermediate goods, and clean-energy equipment. Lower input costs support infrastructure investment and reduce deployment costs in energy, transport, and manufacturing, delivering near-term growth and efficiency gains. At the same time, sustained price competition from large-scale Chinese producers limits the ability of domestic firms to expand capacity, invest, and move into higher-value manufacturing. These pressures are strongest in middle-income economies attempting to build scale in sectors where Chinese firms already operate at very large volumes[5][6]. As a result, trade relationships deepen in volume terms but become more uneven in structure, with greater reliance on Chinese manufactured imports and fewer opportunities for reciprocal industrial upgrading. **3.** **Spillover effects on third markets** As developed economies respond with trade remedies and industrial policy tools, a larger share of exports is redirected toward other markets, including emerging economies. This increases competitive pressure in third countries and complicates their trade relationships. At the same time, access to major markets increasingly depends on meeting evolving standards, subsidy rules, and origin requirements. These conditions raise adjustment costs and encourage more cautious investment and supply-chain decisions[3][7]. **Conclusion** China’s shift toward export-led growth, reinforced by a very large goods trade surplus, is changing the character of its trade relationships. With developed economies, higher import competition is leading to more frequent use of trade defenses and more contested market access. With developing economies, lower-cost imports support near-term growth but increase pressure on domestic manufacturing and limit upgrading opportunities. These dynamics also spill over into third markets, where trade diversion and evolving market-access conditions raise adjustment costs. Together, these effects point toward more uneven and policy-conditioned trade relationships, rather than stable, broadly shared market access.
