Key findings; Why Southeast Asia matters

The US and China are engaged in geopolitical competition for influence; Southeast Asia is of critical importance in this competition, lying at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region, yet should be seen and respected on its own merits. (p. 5)
Given a history of external intervention, Southeast Asian countries prize their autonomy and fear being drawn into great power competition; they seek to maximize benefits from relations with both China and the US; Southeast Asia is a multi-actor region and a complex geostrategic landscape engaging with active and influential “middle powers”. (p. 5)
China’s strengths are its geographic proximity and huge economic footprint, bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, including the Belt and Road Initiative, cultural linkages, values-neutral and transactional political approach, and propaganda narratives; its weaknesses are its geographic proximity, pressure on ASEAN and its member states, its conflict in the South China Sea, military buildup, politically subversive activities, and weak security assistance. (p. 5)
US strengths are its extensive security assistance and foreign direct investment, thousands of US companies operating in the region, soft power appeal, cultural and educational exchange programs, and strategic counterbalancing against Chinese expansion; its weaknesses are the episodic nature of its high-level diplomacy, insufficient public diplomacy efforts, impatience with the slow consensual ASEAN style of diplomacy, absence from regional groupings and FTAs, inability to compete with China on infrastructure development, and failure to develop a comprehensive and integrated strategy toward the region. (p. 6)
The US should not counter China directly but pursue its own interests proactively, play to its strengths, shore up its weaknesses, offer ASEAN states a more positive alternative to China, support increased regional engagement by allied countries, and alleviate ASEAN anxieties about the Quad. (p. 6)
In response to China’s pursuit of its interests in the region, the US should monitor China’s activities, share intelligence with ASEAN states, and publicize China’s malign activities; develop an effective public diplomacy narrative outlining the US vision for a stable regional order; and counter Beijing’s propaganda, subversive activities, and disinformation programs. (p. 6)
Southeast Asia’s sea lanes are vital trade arteries; 40% of global annual goods trade and 25% of all oil and LNG shipments pass through the Strait of Malacca, a potential chokepoint of strategic concern; over 20% of global maritime trade passes through the disputed South China Sea. (p. 9)