Key trends in the use of export restrictions up to 2023

In 2023 the pace of use of export restrictions accelerated; by the end of 2023 approximately 3.4% more raw material products were subject to at least one export restriction compared to 2022, more than double the rate of 2022 and triple the rate of 2023, coinciding with the rise in energy and raw material prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a period of rising geopolitical tensions. (pp. 6-7, Figures 2.1-2.2)

Most of the new export restrictions imposed by China, Vietnam, Burundi, and Russia were new taxes or revised tax rates; the DRC and Zimbabwe adopted export prohibitions to promote local processing; several raw materials saw a global increase in export restrictions incidence of more than 10%, particularly magnesium, mercury, arsenic, and boron. (pp. 7-9, Figures 2.3-2.4)
By 2023’s end, waste and scrap products faced the highest incidence of export restrictions, reflecting environmental concerns over the export of such materials for disposal and the desire to leverage the circular economy as a source of supply for certain metals and minerals; restrictions on ores and minerals increased more rapidly than other segments and nearly twice as fast as the overall average for all restrictions, corresponding to the high and rising concentration of production, imports, and exports in the upstream part of the supply chain and aligning with the policy of supporting domestic downstream industries. (pp. 8-9, Figure 2.5)
Molybdenum, potash, tungsten, zirconium, and germanium had some of the steepest increases in export restrictions; manganese, titanium, zirconium, germanium, coppers and other non-ferrous metals recorded the highest overall levels of export restriction incidence in 2023; between 2021 and 2023, approximately 14% of global trade in non-waste and scrap industrial raw materials was subject to at least one export restriction and more than 20% of global exports of cobalt, rare earth elements, tin, palladium, and other previous metal ores faced at least one export restriction; 67% of cobalt and 46% of rare earth elements faced at least one export restriction. (pp. 10-11, Figures 2.6-2.7)
Some countries face significantly more export restrictions than others, increasing due to a growing concentration of imports subject to relatively high levels of export restrictions and a rising incidence of restrictions on existing flows; decreases result from a shift away from trade flows with high restrictions incidence and a decline in restrictions affecting existing flows; China, India, Vietnam, Argentina, and Burundi were the top five countries in terms of new export restrictions introduced between 2009 and 2023. (pp. 12-13, Figures 2.8-2.9)

Export taxes and licensing requirements contributed the most to the growth of export restrictions between 2009 and 2023; under WTO rules, quantitative export restrictions are generally prohibited but export taxes and licensing requirements are not, however, the use of quantitative export restrictions like export prohibitions and quotas has been on the rise in recent years with the most restrictive, export prohibitions, increasing significantly since 2019; revenue generation is the most frequently cited justification, with safeguarding domestic supply, promoting further processing or value-add, and protecting local downstream industries growing in importance; in 2023 export restrictions were justified under the need to monitor and control export activity including conservation of natural resources. (pp. 12-15, Figures 2.10-2.12)