Labor access, with its flow of remittances and potential for upskilling, has long been recognized as a more viable path to development. The Pacific is home to seven of the top ten countries as being most reliant on remittances (as a share of gross domestic product).^[12] In Tonga, remittances have typically accounted for up to 38% of GDP.

As such, increasing remittance flows through PEV and expanding pre-existing temporary schemes are an obvious way for Australia to meaningfully increase its economic footprint.

The benefits are far from one-way. Pacific workers have been instrumental in filling skill shortages in Australia’s aged care, tourism, and export-oriented agriculture industries. With youthful populations, Pacific countries are well placed to contribute to filling labor gaps in these sectors, which are projected to reach as high as two million by 2050.

In its current form, the PEV is only a first step. The PEV has the potential to provide a viable pathway to gradually resettling the populations of Kiribati and Tuvalu. Both countries are grappling with increasing seawater intrusion which, in the long run, threatens to render them uninhabitable. Speaking recently in Fiji, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong appeared to pour cold water on any suggestion that PEV would prioritize intake from the most climate-vulnerable nations. Australia may be forced to adjust this approach over the longer term as both island countries find it progressively more difficult to support their pre-existing populations.

Precautions are necessary to ensure that migrant flows to Australia do not result in corresponding shortages in the Pacific. Though the PALM scheme is officially aimed at unemployed workers, this is not always true in practice. In Samoa for example, concerns have been raised that PALM has caused shortages in the country’s export-oriented agriculture and tourism sectors. One way to counteract this would be to ensure PEV prioritizes workers from more populous Melanesian countries like the Solomon Islands and PNG. It will also be imperative for Australia to meaningfully address widespread allegations of underpayment and poor conditions.