What could the US do?

A decision to re-enter the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would certainly get the attention of ASEAN leaders. That is not going to happen, at least not in the first term of a Biden administration. The most important potential trade initiative being mooted is a digital trade agreement for the Indo-Pacific. The anticipated template would be the digital trade chapter of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Certain provisions, such as facilitation of digital transactions through the use of electronic authentication and electronic signatures, would likely find favor with most if not all ASEAN members.

Other provisions, which crack down on data localization requirements and ensure free data flows, would be considerably less appealing to many in ASEAN. Indonesia, for instance, is moving towards a more restrictive cyber regime. According to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Indonesia is the second most data restrictive country in the world. The governments of Myanmar and Cambodia are even less enthusiastic about free data flows. Vietnam maintains explicit data localization requirements and Malaysia has indirect and de facto localization requirements in place.

The US’ trade agenda for the region is therefore unlikely to strongly resonate throughout ASEAN. It’s fair to wonder how many will go along for the ride. Singapore can likely be counted in. As evidenced by its participation in the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), the technologically advanced city-state is taking a leadership role in digital trade. But how many others in the region will find it in their interests to buy into the US agenda?

Symbols or substance?

The Biden administration is concerned by the rising influence of China in the region but is either unwilling or unable to meaningfully reassert US relevance. Its policy is instead based on the hope that Zoom sessions, verbal affirmations, and gestures can create the appearance of a relevant, revitalized engagement it has thus far shown no sign of effectuating.

As this unfolds, leaders in ASEAN are likely to be polite and perhaps even hopeful, but few are likely to be convinced. The balancing act will continue, the desire for a more substantial US counterweight will remain, but ASEAN will keep its eye on substance rather than symbols.