The beleaguered World Trade Organization (WTO) has been pursuing a deal to eliminate fishing subsidies for two decades and the SDGs set a target (now, obviously missed) of 2020 for completion of the agreement.

Watch this issue closely. The seemingly arcane topic of fishing subsidies actually has far wider implications. It will provide a telling barometer of just how deep WTO dysfunction runs (believe it or not, even just reaching agreement on the definition of “fish” has proven difficult) and whether or not the decreasingly relevant organization is salvageable.

If WTO members can finally get their act together and hammer out a deal on fishing subsidies, it should inject some much-needed momentum and optimism into the organization. This in turn could provide fresh impetus to undertake badly needed reforms.

Of course, achieving an agreement on fishing subsidies will not indicate the WTO is “back” or that all of its challenges have been magically overcome. It will only signal that members are (contrary to some of the more pessimistic assessments) capable of achieving at least a narrow agreement across the entire membership. That’s a pretty low bar to clear, but given the current level of WTO dysfunction, it should be welcomed as a success. The appointment of a new Director General, expected early in 2021, could provide some additional momentum.

Failure to reach an agreement on the other hand will signal that paralysis at the WTO is as bad as feared and possibly terminal. At that point, it might be time to give serious thought to what a post-WTO global trade system should look like.

One thing is clear: 2021 could be the “make it or break it” year for the WTO. Look to the Hinrich Foundation for timely analysis on WTO issues as the fisheries negotiations continue and a new Director General is named.