There are likely to be bilateral issues of concern in talks with China, ranging from the ongoing dispute with Australia over wine to worries about how to manage agricultural trade and the distribution of tariff rate quotas on products.

However, none of these topics necessarily dooms talks to failure, particularly at the bilateral consultation phase. Getting large economies to join any agreement can be a fraught exercise, as the stakes are higher. But the benefits of success can also be larger.

China is a formidable economic competitor. It is already the largest importer and exporter for most of the CPTPP member economies. Many will suggest that keeping China constrained by a set of rules that are consistent is better than trying to compete with China operating outside of the same rulebook.

One of the original intentions behind the CPTPP, dating back to the original conception as P4 with Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, was to create an agreement that would grow and expand. The CPTPP is certainly better with more members inside the agreement.

Some will argue that there is “no need to rush to join.” But recall that the CPTPP entered into force in December 2018. China’s President Xi declared his serious intentions more than a year ago. The bureaucracy in China has already spent significant time looking carefully at the agreement and preparing gap analyses and brainstorming how to respond to likely requests and concerns.

The CPTPP is currently expanding with Peru becoming a full member on September 19, and with talks underway for the UK, accession is already taking place. China is not likely to be the only prospective member looking carefully at joining now. Stay tuned – trade is going to remain interesting!

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[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-officially-applies-join-cptpp-trade-pact-2021-09-16/

[2] - https://www.mfat.govt.nz/vn/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-in-force/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership-cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership-text-and-resources/

[3] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/the-cptpp-expands

[4] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/the-cptpp-expands

[5] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/how-to-join-the-cptpp

[6] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2015/3/9/creating-the-tpp-secretariat

[7] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/china-applies-to-join-the-cptpp#_ftn1= Subject, of course, to a range of exceptions clauses that follow each specific commitment as well as to a set of general exceptions that apply to the agreement as a whole.

[8] - https://asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/tag/SOEs