This article was originally published in the South China Morning Post

Although two weeks can be an eternity in politics, current polling data gives presumptive Democratic challenger Joseph Biden a commanding lead over President Trump. With the election only 104 days away, foreign trade partners are amongst those watching the US political landscape intently. Many are now shifting their calculations on trade and are actively preparing for the real possibility that the Trump Administration will be voted out in the November election. The President’s sharply declining political fortunes have begun to impact the disposition of three important trade issues in particular.

Who will head the WTO?

Current World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Roberto Acevedo will step down from his post at the end of August, one year ahead of the schedule. This has triggered an unexpected—and extremely critical—selection process to identify his successor. The WTO is fighting for its life and the next Director-General will have to drive a revitalization or preside over its demise.

The Director-General selection process normally works on the basis of consensus rather than a formal vote. The candidate list is gradually whittled down through a series of consultations with members until it’s clear that a single candidate can garner unanimous support. Eight candidates have thrown their hats into the ring, and the hope is to have a new DG selected and ready to step into the role in September. If consensus cannot be reached, one of the four deputy directors-general would take over in an interim caretaker capacity.