Growth implicitly targeted at 5%

First of all, a GDP growth target, as expected, was not mentioned. Second, China's goal, by 2035, is to become a “moderately developed country”. Third, environmental protection is emphasized, again, as expected. In fact, in late September, President Xi pledged an emission peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. GDP growth targets are always closely watched because other targets are less quantifiable. Moreover, GDP growth targets are about policy responses as they imply the magnitude of fiscal stimulus. In recent years, GDP growth has been hovering around 6%. So the issue is really whether a sustainable economic growth rate could be maintained without taking on too much debt. Is the GDP growth rate, therefore, implicitly targeted around 5%? 2020 has seen a dramatic V-shaped recovery on the back of a swift resumption of business since March and a well-calibrated fiscal stimulus. It is almost certain that the Q4 growth rate will be higher than the 4.9% YoY in Q3. The fact that Liu He, Vice Premier, has recently proclaimed that China's economic growth in 2020 would be positive, a gesture to downplay China's strong recovery, has underscored policymakers' confidence in the state of the economy. In 2021, growth could easily be above 7% simply because of the base effect (Q1 and Q2 of 2020 saw -6.8% YoY and 3.2% YoY respectively). It is also safe to assume that the global economic outlook in 2021 will be more favorable regardless of progress in the development of a vaccine. As such, China could and should shift focus to social welfare and poverty reduction.