From a security point of view, experiences observed in other parts of the world have raised questions in the Indo-Pacific about the US military’s staying power. These questions are weighed against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China brandishing enhanced military capabilities.

All told, the US value proposition is substantially less than what it has offered in the past. What many in the region would really like to see is further trade liberalization and greater access to the US market, but the economic framework excludes that possibility. In its absence, the US is trying to build support for issues that are important to the US, but which engender indifference if not outright opposition from many potential regional partners.

Don’t underestimate China’s ability to shoot itself in the foot

Ironically, China might prove to be an ally in US efforts to reassert leadership in the Indo-Pacific. In recent years, China has grown increasingly heavy-handed in dealing with countries which fail to toe Beijing’s line. This has mostly backfired. China’s blatant efforts, for example, to economically punish Australia for having the audacity to suggest that it would be useful to understand the origins of Covid has only strengthened resolve to “stand up” to China.

With some notable exceptions, one of the keys to US influence in the post-war era was its success in making American power “feel safe” for others. China has chosen a different course and seems to be proceeding on the assumption that it’s better to be feared than liked.

Should coercion by China continue or even worsen, the level of regional discomfort with its ascending power will also rise. In that case, countries in the region will be more willing to line up behind the US framework.