Will this agreement be a political asset or liability for President Trump?

Although the White House will undoubtedly position the Phase One agreement as a major accomplishment demonstrating the wisdom and results of the President’s trade strategy, how hard – and how successfully – will his Democratic opponents disparage the deal? The reality is that the agreement makes little progress from where we were when the trade war started and mostly just succeeds in rolling back a portion of the restrictions – and resulting damage – previously put in place. Will President Trump’s political rivals gain traction if they assert that the president has gone “soft” on China for the sake of political expediency, or will the deal be seen by most of the electorate as a “win”? Farmers in crucial mid-west swing states will hold the key, explaining why the administration made agricultural purchases the centerpiece of the agreement.

Are the doves now ascendant in the Trump Administration?

Once again with the caveat that details are murky and still emerging, it would appear that the US has surrendered significant tariff leverage in return for not a whole lot. This is something that administration trade hardliners such as US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would have been loath to do, and influential Republican Senator – and traditional trade hawk – Marco Rubio has already weighed-in expressing concern. Does President Trump’s acceptance of this agreement signal that so-called trade doves such as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are now gaining the upper hand in internal administration debates? The answer to that question will tell us a lot about where these negotiations are headed in the future.