The 14th five-year plan will be officially approved next March by the National People’s Congress. Ministries and localities will follow up with their own sub-plans. It would behoove foreign businesses to sift through the national and relevant local plans to determine where they can ride along and where they may be poised to get run over.

“Dual circulation” as import substitution?

In general, foreign companies that possess advanced technology, industrial processes, financial and other services that China needs – and from which China can glean knowledge to bolster its own companies – will continue to find opportunities in China. Retailers and consumer goods companies which provide quality goods at a low cost to help drive consumption should find room to maneuver. Companies that can modernize and improve the efficiency of China’s tangled, fragmented logistics systems through new technologies should also find a significant market.

At the same time, foreign business should remember that “dual circulation” is Beijing’s doubling down on its import substitution aspirations, reaching back to “Indigenous Innovation” in 2006 and “Made in China 2025” in 2015. As you peruse this upcoming 14th five-year plan and its local plans, remain focused on protecting the long-term future of your global business.

Also keep in mind that Chinese strategic plans for dealing with the outside world go further back than the Soviet era. It is helpful to remember this Qing dynasty slogan that was often quoted by Mao: Gu Wei Jin Yong, Wai Wei Zhong Yong. “Make the past serve the present, make foreign things serve China.”