Thirteen Indo-Pacific countries have joined the US in IPEF negotiations, the latest round just finishing in December in Australia. But without the congressionally approved legitimacy of an actual trade deal, IPEF’s only real draw is the diplomatic incentive of humoring the aging president of a superpower.

On its own, IPEF has little hope of outlasting Biden’s presidency, regardless of which party follows him in the White House. TPA could change that.

By requesting such authority, Biden would signal that the US is serious about engaging the Indo-Pacific beyond his own term in office. If partner countries see Biden make this move, IPEF negotiations would also gain more traction, since any agreed provisions could realistically be rolled into a regional trade deal later.

Biden’s 2014 Financial Times article may have only been a loyal VP backing his president’s lead, rather than his own ideological leanings, but his arguments remain valid today.

If Biden’s legacy for the Asia-Pacific is to endure, his leadership must go further than IPEF. TPA offers him that possibility, but to achieve TPA he will need Republican backing, and to get Republicans on board, he will need a mutual adversary. For the Asia-Pacific, he already has one ready-made: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Standing up to China is one of the only issues on which Republicans and Democrats agree.

The goal of TPP was to establish American leadership in the Asia-Pacific with a rules-based order as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence. After Trump yanked the US out of the deal, the remaining partners established the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. CPTPP by most measures provides a strong framework to advance regional trade, but it lacks the heft that comes with American leadership and the massive US market. China now has its sights on joining CPTPP, further eroding America’s regional leadership.

Framing TPA with the explicit goal of countering China’s regional influence with American economic leadership could appeal to American voters and gain bipartisan support.

Republican support and the McCarthy wild card

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could be the key to reaching a bipartisan deal. Ideologically, McCarthy is in lockstep with the White House on trade. He not only supported the Obama-era TPA, but repeatedly pressed Obama to get his fellow Democrats on board. However, as demonstrated by the fraught election of McCarthy to Speaker by House Republicans, McCarthy's role as leader is precarious. Any legislative action that could be seen as giving Biden a win, could jeopardize his role as Speaker. This will likely restrict McCarthy to the “Hastert Rule”, the unofficial GOP agreement requiring majority support within the party before bringing bills to a vote.

In his new role as Speaker, if McCarthy is to risk making a bipartisan deal with Biden on TPA, he will need China as cover. And regarding China, McCarthy has not been subtle about his views. He calls the CCP 'the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime', and has pledged to visit Taiwan once Speaker.