This classification would allow the United States to tailor its negotiating strategy and prioritize countries that can serve as anchors for broader regional buy-in.

What it could look like with the big guys

Among all the new RTAs to be negotiated, a deal with the European Union is likely to be the most challenging. Tariffs should not be the primary focus, as the EU’s average tariff levels are already quite low — except in agriculture, where meaningful reform would face strong political resistance given the sector’s highly protected status. Regulatory alignment will also be difficult and slow due to the complex and decentralized nature of EU governance. In the short term, the United States should prioritize securing EU cooperation on managing Chinese exports.

This should be feasible, as the EU is concerned that, with the high US tariffs, China will try to divert its exports to the EU. A recent example is the EU-China negotiations on electric vehicles, which is often misunderstood as a sign of solidarity; in reality, it reflects China’s willingness to offer price undertakings to avoid destabilizing the EU market. The United States and EU must coordinate closely on these issues — otherwise, China may exploit transatlantic divisions by redirecting exports between the two markets depending on where tariffs are lower. A key element of any deal with the EU should include provisions that revoke trade benefits for all EU members if a single member state — such as Spain — enters into a separate bilateral trade agreement with China. This would prevent Beijing from exploiting internal divisions within the EU through a "divide and rule" strategy and reinforce the need for a unified transatlantic approach towards China.

China will surely try to counter the RTAs through various initiatives, including attempting to frame these moves as part of an anti-China conspiracy — as seen in Beijing’s fierce reaction to Vice President Vance’s remark that "we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy things those Chinese peasants manufacture." In response, the United States should communicate clearly to the Chinese people that the objective is not to isolate China, but to challenge the Chinese party-state’s exploitative model. The RTAs are meant to promote decent labor standards, better governance, and long-term prosperity.

Done well, such an approach could bind the United States and the European Union closer together and direct a focus for those nations and the rest of the free world.

[This opinion editorial is republished slightly edited with the author’s agreement from a commentary first published in Commonplace on April 16.]