Private-sector support for higher ambitions on bilateral trade has steadily increased, particularly as the Indian economy continues to grow at impressive rates, on track to become the third-largest global economy in a few years (fourth if you count the European Union) and more firms recognize that India is too big to ignore.

Persistent trade restrictions on both sides, such as tariffs and non-tariff measures, remain sticking points and will likely continue to be so, absent stronger efforts to pursue preferential trade opportunities more aggressively.

However, as global trade relations have fractured with the decline of the multilateral trading system and the bubbling up of strategic and autarkic instincts that now wield more influence in determining national policies worldwide, US-India trade relations have remained stuck. India has shown remarkable capacity to strike up new geostrategic and trade alignments, including with other developed economies from Europe to Australia as well as US rivals such as Russia. The United States seems not to see trade agreements with India as a key component of its national security. This atrophy benefits neither country.

There is no better moment than a change of leadership at the White House, whether Democratic or Republican, to chart a new course.

A menu of options

A more ambitious approach, leading to meaningful, enforceable trade agreements, can be incremental, comprehensive, or, most likely, something in between. An initial effort to generate incremental results could make sense and could focus on cross-sectoral issues that are already on the agenda for the India-US Trade Policy Forum, a platform created in 2005 and held sporadically since, such as implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and related upgrades, good regulatory practices focused on transparency, predictability, and accountability in developing central government regulations and aligning regulatory approaches in key sectors, and transparency in government procurement practices, particularly in areas in which governments are significant actors in the market. From there, or in parallel with these efforts, the two sides could convene negotiations on specific sectors that are critical in promoting supply chain resilience.

Critical minerals are an obvious area, building on recent collaboration under the Biden and Modi administrations and potentially tied to preferential treatment for India on batteries and other components for electronic vehicles under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Peter Harrell, a former Biden official, has laid out compelling arguments for future sectoral trade agreements.