Why Southeast Asia matters

Amidst the disruptive forces of the growing imbalance of power in the region, it is easy to simply focus on Great Powers’ prerogatives and interests. Doing so without taking into consideration how smaller states react and respond to such dynamics, however, overlooks the understated importance of how negotiated power works in international politics in two significant ways. First, it is not always the case, as the adage claims, that "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." After all, a large power’s authority cannot be realized through brute force alone. Coercion as a means of demonstrating strength might be politically convenient and expedient, but it is costly to maintain over time and often undercuts a state’s ability to wield actual influence. A more enduring form of leadership and influence derives from validation and acceptance by others, a critical aspect of relational power which is much more difficult to attain than material strength.

Indeed, when smaller states confer upon a larger state the recognition of regional or global leadership, it comes with the expectation of its providing order and upholding — or at least not undermining — the existing norms of regional security and trade.⁶ In short, small states possess an influence with which large, powerful states must contend. It is precisely for this reason that Southeast Asian states matter. Far from being inconsequential, states in the region can provide and confer the legitimacy the United States and China desire.⁷ In short, given that self-legitimation is an oxymoron, it stands to reason that whether the United States or China’s behavior is deemed desirable depends largely on affirmation by Southeast Asian states.

Second, in light of growing concerns about a new arms race in Asia, many observers see the region as ripe for Great Power rivalry, with the debate over whether China’s rise would instill fear in its Asian neighbors mounting in the past two decades.⁸ A closer look at the region’s military expenditure, however, reveals that Southeast Asian states are not engaging in all-out deterrence in response to China’s rise.⁹ This is not to say that the region is embracing China’s rise without any questions or concerns, but that it is instead focused on engaging Beijing through diplomatic and multilateral means and keeping channels of communication open to better assess Beijing’s intentions and longer-term ambitions.