President Xi Jinping has made clear that the era of “hiding power” and “biding time” is over. China will reassert its historical primacy and move to the center of the global stage. In speech after speech, President Xi has repeated that the world is experiencing “changes unseen in 100 years” and the “East is rising, and the West is declining”. Given this worldview, Beijing is unlikely to cheerfully accept US attempts to permanently freeze China in second place in the technology race.

There are several areas where China enjoys leverage: Rare earths, a huge stockpile of US Treasury holdings, a dominant position in the production of basic pharmaceutical materials, and a consumer market that scores of US multinational corporations – along with US stock markets – rely upon for profitability. The trick is to find ways to exploit these points of leverage without causing equal if not greater damage to China’s interests. It will not be easy and viable options are limited.

Historical analogies are dubious at best, often straining to find similarities that don’t exist or drawing “lessons” from past experiences with only limited salience for current day events. It would therefore be entirely premature and unnecessarily alarmist to even hint at any potential parallels between tightening US technology restrictions on China and the stranglehold the US placed on Japan’s access to oil in the years preceding the attack on Pearl Harbor. But it would likewise be reckless not to make very sober-minded assessments on the range of strategic responses China might consider.

Watch closely.

2. Is ASEAN ready for prime time?

Many of the most important crosscurrents buffeting the global trade landscape are prominently playing out across the ten member nations of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The US-China strategic competition is being conducted by proxy throughout the region, with each side jockeying for position, eager to demonstrate that they are the most desirable economic and strategic partner.