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[1] For a discussion of the history of the Chinese auto industry, see Michael Enright, "China’s Auto Policies: Playing the Long Game," Hinrich Foundation, April 8, 2025, https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/fdi/china-auto-policies-playing-the-long-game/.
[2] Sales and market share figures are from the archives of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). While the data from these two sources tends to track, there are some differences in reported sales and output.
[3] CPCA and CAAM.
[4] Bill Russo, "State of China’s Auto Market – March 2025," Automobility, March 18, 2025, https://automobility.io/2025/03/state-of-chinas-auto-market-march-2025/.
[5] Jordyn Dahl, "Volkswagen is the anti-Tesla and China is to blame," Politico, September 16, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/volkswagen-tesla-china-evs-europe-herbert-diess-elon-musk/; Volkswagen, Annual Reports, Various Years, https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/financial-reports-18134; Volkswagen does not consolidate the operating profit figures from China into the Group reports, percentages were calculated from China and Group results.
[6] William Clavey, "Volkswagen Group Is No Longer The Sales King In China," Top Speed, January 21, 2025, https://www.topspeed.com/volkswagen-is-no-longer-the-sales-king-in-china/.
[7] Keith Bradsher, "How Volkswagen Lost Its Way in China," The New York Times, November 10, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/31/business/volkswagen-china.html.
[8] Hanna Ziady, "Historic moment for Volkswagen: Automaker plans to close ‘at least’ 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs," CNN, October 28, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/business/volkswagen-factory-closures-layoffs/index.html.
[9] Edward White and Patricia Nilsson, "Volkswagen fails to win ground in China," Financial Times, January 9, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/1386906c-5dd1-4167-bc96-72940fc473bf.
[10] Elijah Nicholson-Messmer, "Volkswagen’s Fight for Relevance in China: Can 11 New Models Turn the Tide?," Auto Blog, March 21, 2025, https://www.autoblog.com/news/volkswagens-fight-for-relevance-in-china-can-11-new-models-turn-the-tide.
[11] "Volkswagen’s China Comeback Plan: Outpacing BYD," Archyde, April 14, 2025, https://www.archyde.com/volkswagens-china-comeback-plan-outpacing-byd/.
[12] "Volkswagen's EV sales rise in Europe, plunge in China," Reuters, April 9, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagens-europe-ev-sales-more-than-double-first-quarter-2025-04-08/.
[13] David McHugh and Ken Moritsugu, "What to know about Europe's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles," Associated Press, October 30, 2024, https://www.yahoo.com/news/know-europes-tariffs-chinese-electric-074612065.html.
[14] General Motors Company, Annual Reports, Various Years, https://investor.gm.com/sec-filings, GM includes sales of SGMW in its market share estimates. Excluding SGMW, in which GM has a minority ownership stake, reduces GM’s 2024 share to 2.6%.
[15] William Stopford, "General Motors takes multi-billion dollar hit as China troubles mount," CarExpert, December 6, 2024, https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/general-motors-takes-multi-billion-dollar-hit-as-china-troubles-mount.
[16] Pras Subramanian, "GM China to take $5B hit; 'there will be no comeback story,' expert says," Yahoo Finance, December 4, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-china-to-take-5b-hit-there-will-be-no-comeback-story-expert-says-172748406.html.
[17] Jonathan Lopez, "GM Expects Return To Profitability In China In 2025," GM Authority, February 5, 2025, https://gmauthority.com/blog/2025/02/gm-expects-return-to-profitability-in-china-in-2025/.
[18] General Motors' China Q4 Sales Rise 41% Q/Q on Strong NEV Deliveries, Zacks Equity Research, January 10, 2025, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-motors-china-q4-sales-153800500.html.
[19] Rhian Hunt, "EU Slaps Stiff Tariff On SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling Chinese-Built EVs," GM Authority, July 5, 2024, https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/07/eu-slaps-stiff-tariff-on-saic-gm-and-saic-gm-wuling-chinese-built-evs/; European Commission, "EU imposes duties on unfairly subsidised electric vehicles from China while discussions on price undertakings continue," EU Press Release, October 28, 2024, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_5589.
[20] Matthew Campbell, with Chunying Zhang, Haze Fan, David Stringer, and Emma O'Brien, "Elon Musk Loves China, and China Loves Him Back—for Now," Businessweek, January 13, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-13/china-loves-elon-musk-and-tesla-tsla-how-long-will-that-last.
[21] Campbell et al.
[22] Bill Russo, "State of China’s Auto Market – January 2025," Automobility, January 22, 2025, https://automobility.io/2025/01/state-of-chinas-auto-market-january-2025/; Simon Alvarez, "Tesla China wholesale units dip 44% in December, though Q4 is still a strong quarter overall," Teslarati, January 5, 2023, https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-december-sales-record-q4-2022/; Simon Alvarez, "Tesla China sales soar in March amid new Model Y domestic deliveries," Teslarati, April 9, 2025, https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-sales-march-new-model-y-domestic-deliveries/.
[23] John Engle, "Tesla's China Growth Prospects Look Increasingly Shaky," Seeking Alpha, November 30, 2022, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561454-tesla-china-growth-prospects-look-increasingly-shaky.
[24] Rough estimates based on analyst reports and Tesla’s financial reports. See for example, Claribelle Deveza, "Tesla China May Have Over 30% Gross Margins, Says Morgan Stanley," Tesmanian, October 1, 2024, https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-china-30-gross-margins-morgan-stanley.
[25] "Tesla’s latest price cuts risk wiping out China earnings," Business Times, April 22, 2024, https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/transport-logistics/tesla-s-latest-price-cuts-risk-wiping-out-china-earnings.
[26] Russo, March 2025.
[27] Dong Yi Chen, "Passenger vehicle retail sales ranking in China, BYD: 290000, Geely: 195000, FAW-Volkswagen: 130000, Tesla China: 74000, March 2025," Car News China, April 12, 2025, https://carnewschina.com/2025/04/12/passenger-vehicle-retail-sales-ranking-in-china-byd-290000-geely-195000-faw-volkswagen-130000-tesla-china-74000-march-2025/.
[28] McHugh and Moritsugu.
[29] Simon Alvarez, "Tesla China discontinues Model S and Model X orders amid tariff war," Teslarati, April 11, 2025, https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-discontinues-model-s-model-x-orders-tariff-war/.
[30] Scott Kennedy, "The Chinese EV Dilemma: Subsidized Yet Striking," CSIS Blog, June 28, 2024, https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking; European Commission, October 28, 2024.
[31] Elaine Kurtenbach, "EVs, tariffs in the spotlight as Chinese automakers take leading role at Shanghai auto show," ABC News, April 22, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/evs-tariffs-spotlight-chinese-automakers-leading-role-shanghai-121067719.