Some photos from the session:

Key takeaways

1. Global trade is more resilient than expected despite geopolitical shifts
Strategic and security considerations now play a lasting role in shaping tariffs, export controls, investment screening, and industrial policy, marking a structural shift away from market-led trade policy. Yet despite heightened uncertainty and tariff escalation, global trade continued to expand through 2025, with protectionist effects largely concentrated in the US rather than cascading globally.

2. The AI investment cycle is offsetting fragmentation pressures
A powerful counterweight to trade volatility has emerged through the AI-driven investment cycle. Demand for semiconductors, advanced electronics, data centers, and related infrastructure has underpinned export growth and foreign investment across parts of Southeast Asia. This momentum has continued even as geopolitical risk and supply-chain fragmentation increase.

3. China’s export surge reflects structural adjustment and accelerating innovation
China’s growing reliance on exports is rooted in deeper structural constraints, including weak investment channels and longstanding consumption imbalances. At the same time, export growth increasingly reflects a shift toward higher-value and more technologically sophisticated products, supported by dense technology clusters, expanding intellectual property, and integrated value propositions across sectors such as clean energy, pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing.

4. "Middle powers" are recalibrating rather than aligning
Many Asian economies are recalibrating rather than aligning exclusively with either the US or China, combining competition, cooperation, and selective engagement. India’s evolving relationship with China highlights how security concerns can coexist with economic pragmatism.

5. Rules continue to shape trade, even as institutions weaken
While confidence in multilateral institutions has weakened, World Trade Organization rules continue to inform trade agreements and regional arrangements. These shared disciplines remain a reference point for cooperation, even as reaching consensus within formal institutions becomes increasingly difficult.